Blog: what do modelling earthquakes and epidemics have in common?
3 June 2020
SECURe partner Thomas Le Guenan (BRGM) describes a common thread in the study of seismic events and the work of epidemiologists.
WP2 Risk assessment
News
Outputs
Risktec bowtie report BGS-01-R-12: carbon storage bowtie analysis
Risktec has developed a bowtie analysis-based risk assessment framework, which is a key objective in development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment tool (SqRAT). The bowties were initially developed from a literature review that captured the hazards, threats, consequences and barriers associated with unconventional hydrocarbon production and geological CO2 storage. The bowties are generic in nature, representing typical scenarios that can be applied to many potential future projects, rather than being representative of any one project or development.
This report presents bowties and effectiveness and uncertainty descriptors associated with the carbon ctorage scope. A sister report has been developed to consider the unconventional hydrocarbon extraction scope.
Risktec Bowtie report BGS-01-R-11: unconventional hydrocarbons extraction bowtie analysis
Risktec has developed a bowtie analysis-based risk assessment framework, which is a key objective in development of a semi-quantitative risk assessment tool (SqRAT). The bowties were initially developed from a literature review that captured the hazards, threats, consequences and barriers associated with unconventional hydrocarbon production and geological CO2 storage. The bowties are generic in nature, representing typical scenarios that can be applied to many potential future projects, rather than being representative of any one project or development.
This report presents bowties and effectiveness and uncertainty descriptors associated with the unconventional hydrocarbon extraction scope. A sister report has been developed to consider the carbon storage scope.
D2.6 Guidelines for risk assessment for leakage and induced seismicity risk in CO2 storage and unconventional gas production
Subsurface storage of CO2 and a change from coal to gas as a transition fuel with a lower CO2 footprint can contribute to an accelerated reduction of net greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere required to mitigate climate change. Leakage and induced seismicity risks associated with CCS and (unconventional) gas production (UGP) may hamper safe and efficient CO2 storage or UGP. Therefore, in WP2 of the SECURe project, these risks are studied with a focus on:
- well integrity
- subsurface integrity and fluid or gas migration
- nduced seismicity
This report outlines a synthesis of good or recommended practices for CCS and UGP that serves as a knowledge base underpinning measures to reduce of leakage and induced seismicity risks.
D2.5 Report on analysis from simulations and laboratory testing of risk factors in controlling brina, hydrocarbon, CO2 and injected fluid migration, with implications for caprock, overburden and wellbore integrity
This report serves as an extensive collection of research methods and practices on how to understand and quantify the potential risks associated with CCS and unconventional hydrogen production. The document details the following work:
- a risk framework, based on the bow-tie methodology
- lab experiments on the integrity of well cement to uncover cement properties and permeabilities
- a geomechanical model developed to analyse debonding and radial cracking of cement for a shale gas well and a CO2 injection well
- field and lab work performed on an outcrop in the Mont Terri Rock Laboratory
- a fault-zone analysis investigating the presence of relic brine in the Polish subsurface
- a comparison between a fast, analytical model and a coupled numerical model on assessing the potential of fault reactivation and seismicity near an injection well
D2.4 Report on geochemical models: long-term effects of CO2 and methane leakage on groundwater — data and models based on two field injection experiments
This deliverable describes a CO2 injection site and a methane (CH4) injection site to ascertain if there are still effects of controlled leakages in the groundwater and or the sediment. For the CO2 site the injection took place aboout seven years prior to the sampling; for the CH4 site about four and a half years had passed when it was resampled. Water samples and sediment samples were acquired and analysed and models describing the development on short and long terms have been developed.
D2.3 Report on induced seismicity models
Amongst the various threats considered in geoenergy projects, the risk of induced seismicity is important as it already leads to paused or stopped deep geothermal, shale gas or conventional gas projects and thus one of the main concerns of stakeholders. This report deals with models for induced seismicity as a tool for assessing its risk and is designed mainly for researchers and engineers interested in risk assessment of induced seismicity.
D2.2 Report on effects of long-term sequestration process in the Borzęcin structure — observation evidence of the injected gas migration and possible leakage
Monitoring of CO2-H2S sequestration at the Borzęcin reservoir (Poland) gives an important opportunity to assess propagation and intensity of acid gas migration and potential leak pathways towards surface receptors. Various tests and analyses were performed downhole, as well as on surface samples of reservoir fluids, giving new data to add to a long-ranging historical dataset describing environmental conditions at the site. A constructed and calibrated model of the reservoir structure is used to predict the future performance of the current sequestration project. In addition, the capacity of the Borzęcin structure for increased sequestration is assessed by finding the optimum scenario of the risk-free sequestration performance.
Pyrite dissolution rate in saline fluids and implications for fracking
Veerle Vandeginste, University of Nottingham ABSTRACT
The geomechanical response of naturally fractured carbonate reservoirs to operation of a geothermal doublet
J Ter Heege, TNO ABSTRACT
Simulation of induced seismic ground motions using coupled geomechanical and seismic wave propagation models
Bob Paap, TNO ABSTRACT
D2.1 Report on state-of-the-art microseismicity techniques in Europe and North America
Induced seismicity can arise from a variety of situations, usually in relation with extraction or injection of fluids. One of the challenges is monitoring the microseismicity before assessing the actual risk. This report gives a state-of-the-art review of microseismicity techniques using examples from Europe and North America, and serves as an introduction for many tasks within the SECURe project that are related to induced seismicity.
Both unconventional hydrocarbon production and geological CO2 storage utilise deep geological formations, and both require safe and monitored deployment. Rigorous assessment of potential impacts and the development of mitigation strategies for the full lifecycle of any project is essential.
This work package will produce a risk assessment framework that project developers can use to assess hazards and the likelihood of specific risks in relation to protecting the environment. This framework can be used to underpin policymaking and develop effective remedial strategies.
Using a portfolio of existing European and North American facilities and field sites, our researchers will investigate leakage processes and impacts at laboratory and field-scale to enable them to characterise and quantify relevant risk factors. Ultimately, this will result in a set of guidelines for carrying out transparent and verifiable risk assessments.